Saturday, February 7, 2009

What Can Happen In Perak From Now?

Done deal. BN reclaimed Perak with the support of the 3 "independent" assemblymen. Since BN is now commanding the state assembly with their 28+3 votes versus 28 of PR, Datuk Mohd Nizar will not survive the no confidence vote when the state assembly resume next month. So, what happen in BN & PR from now till the reopen of the state assembly is very critical to both sides. There is no room for negligent, let alone "mistake". At this moment, the luck is not with PR as the Sultan of Perak prefers BN over PR and convinced that BN has the support of the majority in the state assembly.

What can happen during this period?
  1. PR continues to add pressure to the palace so that the Sultan will consent to dissolve the state assembly. As they are many objections from the people on the ground, there is a chance that Sultan will accede to rakyat's will and agree to dissolve the state assembly to pave way for at a snap poll. After all , Sultan Azlan Shah will not want to be seen as a ruler who go against rakyat's will.
  2. The 2 defectors are facing graft charges . They may be sentenced to jail for more than 6 months. Hence, they will have to relinquish their state assemblymen post and a by-election will be called. If this becomes reality, there is a good chance that PR will win in the by-election and regain the control in the state assembly. However, Najib will not want see this happenning. He will do everything at any price to prevent this from happenning. The prediction on the street is that the graft charges will be dropped ultimately (We all use to hear that important evidence can dissapear during last minute) and the duo will be free again. Then, UMNO will welcome these to clean men with the red carpet. That is the reason why the duo still remained as BN friendly state assemblymen instead of joining straight away so as not to "containminate" BN. Hee Yit Fong will join either Gerakan or MCA as she needs to "keep her promise" to be an independent after exit from DAP.
  3. BN will work very hard to secure more defectors from PR. This is due to BN urgently need to have more non-malay representative in their state exco line up.
  4. Since BN gained control through the support of the 3 independent state representatives, not BN members, there is no guarantee that the 3 will not object some of the issue raise in the state assembly. Worst, they may return to PR (that will be very unfortunate for the people in the constituencies.
  5. Not to forget also there could be defections from BN to PR. One should not under estimate Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's abilities.
There are now 2 Menteri Besar in Perak and both of them are claiming to be the legal one. The Sultan has urged the people to accept Dr Zambry as the new MB and pay him due respect. Sure, if Tuanku say so, who are we to say no. But, the Sultan may have miscalculated because his decision is against people's will. The traditional respect has been diminished. If PR regain Perak one day, he will have to accept Datuk Mohd Nizar again. It is difinitely hard to work closely between the Sultan & the MB.

Amid the global economy crisis, the current political turmoil is a disaster for negeri Perak and Malaysia as a whole. Najib as the PM in waiting, priorotised his efforts in the the Perak coup instead of paying full attention to address the country's economy issues. He did this just to strengthen his position for his new role as UMNO president. Do you think he can be the good PM when he put his personal interest above all?
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